(20)10 predictions for the iPhone - A shot, because we have to :)
Before someone smarter does the same (and there will be many), we'll take a bet at predicting 10 things for next year about the iPhone. At least, since we are probably the 1st to do it so soon, we might have a chance to sound right :)
There will still be a minority of developers that will quit but will make lots of noise, Most will be upset about it but still will submit apps. Over time good developers will know a few rules and will optimize their submission. A service or 2 will raise assisting developers optimizing and handling the process for them.
2. The App store will hit 300k/500k apps
100k+ is the number to date. we anticipate this number will jump and accelerate. Apple will find ways to scale a little the approval process. Many of those apps will be a derivative version of an original approved app (eg artist app, maps app, translation apps,..)
3. Web Apps will raise but will equal Native apps, specially not in revenues
A few have started, and Apple seems to have the right tool to enable perfect web based apps. But the problem is that they won't enjoy the iTunes juice (unless Apple does something about it). Most users will still prefer the comfort of native apps and developers will follow
4. Slowly but surely iTunes move to the browser, so does the App Store
Apple starts to take the web very seriously. Enough to start migrating iTunes to the browser. They acquired Lala which hints at a web based iTunes declination. We anticipate that the App store will follow. Will ease navigation and spead. But not discovery.
5. Android will get momentum as an app store ecosystem but not before Q4 2010
With the choice and number of devices, developers will feel the potential of developing or migrating successful iphone apps to Android. But with Christmas being an All iPhone shopping gift wave, it will be hard for Android to catch up before end of 2010. Even with the coming Google Phone
6. The discovery issue will remain critical
The number of apps and painful App store navigation will leave the discovery issue total. A few startups will try vainly to solve that because app discovery has to be solved totally differently. Apple will try too...Hopefully Appsfire will make something about it :) Or not.
7. App marketing will become more mature, many will go out of business
More developers become aware that succeeding in the App store is not just about creating a great app, but managing a business, including doing great App marketing. this will include Pre-App store marketing like teasing, Pricing, CRM, buzz monitoring, analytics and more. A few companies will start to make money out of this
And since the ecosystem becomes more competitive, many apps will go free or just will go out of business.
8. Apple will release a new iPhone with unheard capabilities
It is not a prediction really. It is expected for June or July. Expect RFID and real bluetooth. Maybe background apps...but let s not dream too much. the big expectation is the Tablet that will run the App Store too and will give birth to a new generation of Apps because of the screen size and keyboard input.
9. Brands will invade the iPhone
They finally get it. They heard about Pizza hut and they heard about Nike. They all want an App to engage with customers. Any brand, big or small will try to get an app. Sometimes 2 or 3 at a time (like Ralph Laurent). Some, out of resources, will simply use, app templates to at least have a presence in the App store. This won't mean success. Just illusion of coolness.
10. Apple will start dropping carrier exclusivity in its top markets
This already started in France and Israel. But most big countries will see the end of the 1 carrier exclusivity. And this will be good for all users.
