Earlier today TechCrunch featured a report from mobile research firm research2guidance predicting the Android Market would “blow past” the App Store in size in August 2011. Distimo published similar findings only a week ago. You can go on all you want about the Android Market representing quantity over quality, or the fact that it’s all moot until Android starts to generate revenues for developers at anywhere near the rate that Apple is, but there’s a more important piece to this puzzle: by the most important measure, the Android Market won’t actually surpass the App Store anytime soon.
Roughly 40% of apps that have been published to the Android Market from its inception are no longer available for download. On iOS, the figure is about 15%. In fact, there are far more “discontinued” apps for Android than there are for iOS, in spite of the Android Market being smaller overall. Appsfire keeps tab on which apps are still available so that users of our apps - Appsfire (iOS/Android) and App Deals (iOS) don’t discover any apps that aren’t actually available to download, or, for Android users, aren’t compatible with their device. Because wouldn’t it be disappointing to discover that a popular app doesn’t work on your device?
So while it’s true that by some time later this year more apps will have been created for Android than have been for iOS, the number of apps an iPhone owner can download will remain far greater than the number an Android device owner can.
We won’t make any projections about if or when the number of available apps for Android will surpass that of the App Store, but by this measure it won’t be anytime in 2011. And maybe not in 2012. The bottom line: Looking at the sheer number of apps published to either the Market or the App Store is a flawed measure. And once again the Android Market reveals itself to be a puzzling, if incomplete, offering to consumers, developers and analysts alike.
