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Good news: the App store grows to 100k apps/ Bad news: The long tail is VERY long [exclusive appsfire data]

Today the App Store has passed the 100k apps available on the App Store (sept was officially announced 85k). This is a great news and the pace keeps growing. 

But there is a bad news. Very few apps are enjoying the ride.

We have found out that actually 20k apps are actually used (meaning installed and kept on people's iPhone). This number may grow with our user base, but it is a clear indicator that only 20% of all apps are actually raising interest.

The second number which is more dramatic is that there is a very very very long tail of apps: The graph below gives you an indication of the rank of each app we scan (based on the number of installation) and the % of users that own them.

A very little number of apps makes it above 50% of iphone owners (easy to guess which one: facebook, shazam,...) it goes down VERY fast. The app rank 1000 is owned by less than 2% of the iPhone owners (1.76%) and it goes down very fast also.

Bottom line:

  • the app store has a majority of apps (80%) not really actively installed
  • Of the installed based a very little number make it to a big number of install.
  • the long tail effect of the App store is dramatic

Why is this happening you ask? Well we have an idea. The App store is not designed for the long tail but for hits. No matter how great the App store is doing the discovery process is poor and only best sellers are really making it. This is even more true when you realize that most apps are downloaded from the mobile version of iTunes.

Of course this has to be ajusted by the fact that not all apps have the same "age" in the iTunes, but we saw recently growing to the top 20 in less than a month (like the Tpain apps).

App developers need to be aware of that fact. And marketing an app is more than key in this jungle. Lots of great apps are not discovered because there is only 100 places in the top 100, not because they are not great enough.

Soon, Appsfire will have tools to help solve some of this. [you can already download Appsfire for you computer and your iPhone to show and discover apps from people around you ]


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Comments (21)

Oct 27, 2009
Jeremy Olson said...
True. The top 100 favors apps with general appeal. I don't think, however, that niche apps cannot succeed on the app store.

Developers have to face it: niche apps aren't going to get into the top 100. This means they absolutely cannot sell for 99 cents. Why? Because the 99 cent model is an app-store dependent model. Advertising a 99 cent app has almost no possibility of returning your investment. Also, the press tends to neglect niche apps. Thus, the app store charts are your only hope and getting there is a huge feat, even for apps with wider appeal.

Some niche apps won't work. Either the niche is too small or the niche isn't willing to pay more than a few bucks for an app (or both).

Its not impossible though. If your niche is large enough or if it is willing to pay more, you can make it work—though an extreme case, Wolfram Alpha's $50 app has done very well and I've seen others like it.

Further reading along these lines:
http://www.taptaptap.com/blog/convert-first-month-sales/

http://tapity.com/iphone-app-marketing/convert-150000-and-traditional-vs-hit-driven-iphone-apps/

Oct 27, 2009
AppsFire Team said...
the nice apps can t make it not because of the ranking but because of the way the browsing experience is available from the app store, same thing even worse from the mobile app store.

The ads don't pay back because the current ad format/pricing is irrelevant to them

and this is what appsfire want to try to change a little

Oct 27, 2009
davewallin said...
A niche app won't mean a thing if no one can find it. The mobile app store needs more ways to find apps - either randomly sorted, sorted by rating, community picks, 'users who bought this also bought...', etc.. Everything is sorted by sales, so the things that get the most sales also get the most traffic and thus more sales - it's a feedback loop.

Also, the mobile app store only lets you see 100 apps in a category. This means that tens of thousands of apps don't even show up there. Search is great, but only if you know what you are searching for (ie, doesn't work for 'browsing'). It's very hard to find things the way it's set up now.

Oct 27, 2009
AppsFire Team said...
Yep! there you go

Oct 27, 2009
Jeremy Olson said...
It would be nice if Apple gave more app discovery tools but they haven't. Right now we have to live with what we have.

Niche apps (and apps in general) cannot depend on the app store as a marketing tool. In the beginning, when there were a few thousand apps, that was viable. Now, with 100k apps, it isn't. Developers need to find ways to market the app outside the app store.

Oct 27, 2009
AppsFire Team said...
that was my point. this is why app blogs are blossoming every day, because people need more discovery. 

not sure this is enough however...

Oct 30, 2009
dominique Turcq said...
There is an other way to look at it: why should all apps be easily visible to everyone? In fact, exactly as is logical with the long tail theory, many apps are only of interest to a few people, and if you trust the long tail theory (in this case I do) they will find the apps that interest them via their networks, not via any search on the store.
Oct 30, 2009
AppsFire Team said...
except the way to find the long tail is not proper. and the symptom to that is that 100% of users are looking for apps outside the app store.

Oct 30, 2009
dominique Turcq said...
yes and no, since the number of possible sources of informations, and their targeted audiences, makes it possible for anyone to know about the apps he is interested in via other sources than a search on the store. Frankly the store is of no interest in most cases, but an appsfire :) or a tweet or just a recommendation from someone of my tribe will do a great recommendation job...
Oct 30, 2009
AppsFire Team said...
the problem, is attention or fragmention of attention. Not everyone is on twitter, and if so not all the time. Email is still the killer app. Discovery has to take place where you attention is. 

Nov 04, 2009
widebeam said...
I think one of Apples functions (unless appsfire gets there first!) is to have one of the main sections, e.g. remove the top grossing apps section and replace it with something not too different from how stumbleupon works for web browsing. With a little info but a good portion of randomness it could just work.
The current genius results dont really work, it's too literal, why would I want more apps like I have already?!
Nov 04, 2009
DistortedLoop said...
Interesting statistics, but I'm curious, how many users are you basing this data on? Can you reveal the size of your user base? The more users, the more credible, of course.

I certainly like your model better than the spyware-ish approach of Pinch Media and its ilk.

Nov 04, 2009
AppsFire Team said...
Our sample is composed of a few thousand users. most iPhone research published by serious companies is based on samples equivalent or smaller to that. we have an obvious biais that we disclose because of the youth of our service. But you ll be interested to know that in 4months of operations we don't see that graph improving at all. It might improve a little but we are confident that mostly 20k app of 100k are really installed.

Nov 04, 2009
Byron said...
This isn't going to be an easy problem to solve for anyone. On one hand you have Apple who, from a business perspective have no real incentive to expose apps/games that aren't selling extremely well. On the other hand you have some really great games/apps that never get exposure. There isn't going to be a single solution to this. It's probably going to take external efforts to get those apps and games visible that Apple isn't directly exposing.
Nov 04, 2009
AppsFire Team said...
Byron. spot on. and this is why we created Appsfire

Nov 05, 2009
DistortedLoop said...
Thanks for reporting how many users you have.

I think your service is valuable, and I've installed and will use your app, but I have some doubts about the validity of data from just "a few thousand" self-selected users being used to extrapolate how everyone who has an iPhone uses it, which is how your graphs are being interpreted and causing such a stir on so many other blogs.

Granted, I know little about statistics, and polls or surveys, so I may have my head up in some dark orifice in that regard. As I think about it, I know Gallop and other polls are based on very small samples relative to the size of the US population, which they extrapolate out to the population as a whole. I'm not sure I trust their sample sizes either, but they've got a lot of experience at it, and I suppose if it works for them, it probably works for iPhones. ;-)

Nov 05, 2009
AppsFire Team said...
you probably have a point on the precision and representativeness of our sample. But we fully disclose it and we trust the intelligence of bloggers and readers to take the data carefully

Since you are keen on stats, you also know like me that what matters are more trends rather than data. We ll publish regularly an update on this number and see how it evolves.

Maybe we ll find out that we were far from the reality. Maybe not. 

But again. the 20/80 seems to be confirmed by the simple fact that more users we have more the number of apps newly installed get small. 

Nov 05, 2009
DistortedLoop said...
Exactly, and that's why I chose to install the app. It serves value for those who understand what it says, and you're open about what you're doing.

The data can be misunderstood, though. I've seen a few developers post discouraged comments about if they'd seen this kind of data before writing their apps, they wouldn't have bothered. Obviously, they wouldn't be discouraged if their app were selling, so this data just justifies their own experience and possibly explains it, but it would be sad to think that the next MUST-HAVE app could end up never being written because the developer looked at the long tail and decided not to bother...

Nov 05, 2009
AppsFire Team said...
Good point. That was not the intention. Actually it's just showing how much potential can be achieved
Nov 06, 2009
Fifthworld said...
But this is true to most of the businesses. 20% of your products generate 80% of your income. No surprise here. Do you think this is different in the Music store? What is new it's this retail store-the App Store-not cleaning up the shelves from the products that doesn't sell. IMO, an app that doesn't sell a certain number of units in 12 months should be removed, because either is just crap or a major marketing failure (like wrong name, no attention in the blogsphere or in any other media, etc.). As major benefit a less cluttered App store should make easier to find what you are looking for.
Dec 12, 2009
black halo said...
I have found so many interesting thing in your blog and I really love that Keep up the good work

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