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In terms of mobile app predictions, Appsfire is not doing too bad. If you want to a proof, check our last year’s predictions. Not bad huh?

So here are our 2012 predictions for this year

  1. 1.5 million live apps [iOS + Android] by end 2012. We were already predicting in september before others confirmed 1 million apps for 2011 [100% chances]
  2. Native apps win over web apps, big time [sorry Dave Winer]: yes HTML5 is wonderful. but there is still no magical way to make decent money and get decent distribution our of web apps, since the App ecosystems are focusing on promoting native apps (only or first) and users prefer the experience of native apps [100% chances]
  3. Apple will bring a new Apple TV with apps[a box, not a screen]. Will run iOS apps [some of them] and it will be much faster and awesome [90% chances]
  4. iPhone 5/iPad 3: yes, it will land. will have NFC, with a new design, new camera, faster, more battery, more everything. Samsung will blush, then copy. iPad 3 is announced. includes Retina display [90% chances]
  5. Android will crash iOS on market share, but iOS developers will still make more money than Android developers: not a prediction actually, but that will still be the case as Google is still not solving well the billing and piracy issues [not mentioning the fact that not educating their users to pay correctly is not helping] – 80% chances
  6. Windows Phone gets its share of the market and beats RIM. Lumia 800 is a hit phone [70% chances]
  7. SIRI will be available for iPhone 4 and 3GS. There is already a proof it is working [65% chances]
  8. SIRI API becomes available. You will be able to launch and control 3rd party apps by voice [50% chances]
  9. Apple relaxes App store rules: A lot more apps get in faster. But more apps will get rejected after being approved [65% chances]
  10. Asia conquers the App Space: more top games, more top apps will be produced and marketed from the east and will shoot frontally traditional app giants [70% chances]
  11. Instagram goes with massive funding, extend to video, android. Path rejects a second acquisition offer, gets massive funding too [80% chances]
  12. Security is becoming a mess on Android: Google will buy Lookout or some other mobile security firm [70%]
Do you have more predictions for 2012?

Bonuses

  • Most blog posts about app discovery will still start with “With over half million apps, finding the right app can be a real challenge…” [150% chances]
  • It will still be considered as cool to make cool jokes around the APP word (eg:  “APPY new year” , “this is APPENING now” )
  • WWDC 2012 will sell out in 2 min and 13 seconds. Better then 2011 [ok maybe a bit longer..]
  • Someone will finally make an app about 2012 app predictions [zero %]
  • Carles Coll

    1TapHappyNewYear ;)